Baha Mar’s 2026 ‘Silver Lining’ After 20% Occupancy Drop-Off

Baha Mar’s booking pace for 2026 is 4 percent ahead year-on-year, its president revealed, with the mega resort suffering “a slower than normal slow season” along with other hotels.

Graeme Davis told the Bahamas Hotel and Tourism Association’s (BHTA) quarterly directors meeting that September’s occupancies are forecast to be “down about 20 percent” compared to the same month in 2024 as he revealed that the 2025 full-year is set to miss projections by around 4 percent.

“We are seeing a very soft September and fourth quarter,” he said. “The year so far to-date, we certainly have been down slightly, probably about 4-5 percent down year-on-year. What we’re looking at in September here, our occupancy is around 30 percent. It’s quite low. We’re expecting that to be down about 20 percent year-on-year for September.

“October, we will start to pick up just [like Atlantis]. We’re the same. We’ll start to ramp up here in October with around 50 percent occupancy; that’s still slightly down year-on-year. November the same. We’ll start ramping up even more with activities as well as Thanksgiving, around 70 percent, and we;ll look at probably the mid-70 percents for December.

“For the total year 2025 we’re looking to be down around 4 percent year-on-year which is, you know, we had higher expectations for our budgetary purposes for 2025. We’re certainly disappointed with the decrease year-on-year.”

But, striking a more optimistic tone and outlook for 2026, Mr Davis confirmed that Baha Mar is targeting a ground-breaking next year for its multi-million dollar replacement for the Melia Nassau Beach Resort and projecting a forward booking pace that is higher than prior year comparatives.

He appeared to challenge, though, the narrative that the flat to slightly-down stopover tourism arrivals have been caused by insufficient hotel room inventory to meet the demand. “We still have significant availability throughout the year,” he added. “The need of additional inventory on-island, we have excess inventory here.

“We’re excited about breaking ground on our new project, which will be 341 keys and suites, as well as 60 residences. We’re still on target to break ground next year in 2026, so more inventory is on the way. We still have significant capacity here at Baha Mar, and we continue to drive millions in marketing dollars that we’re promoting not only Baha Mar but Nassau, Paradise Island and The Bahamas,” he added.

“We continue to focus on that. Our investment in the project has never been stronger. We’re investing this year over $40m in capital projects, new experiences for our guests.” Existing amenities are being expanded and upgraded with Mr Davis giving a more upbeat assessment of Baha Mar’s early 2026 prospects.

“We’re looking forward to a bright 2026,” the Baha Mar chief said. “We’re sort of right now 4 percent up on pace year-on-year. If you look back to 2024-2025, and 2025-2026, we’re up about 4 percent which is a positive sign potentially, and some group business we have in the Spring.

“If market conditions stay positive in the US, and the Canadian demand to come down to The Bahamas and the additional airlift, we’re optimistic for 2026 at this time.” Baha Mar is bidding to open a new Italian restaurant, Loyola, in November.

Jackson Weech, the BHTA president and general manager for operations at Atlantis, said the Paradise Island mega resort is experiencing similar trends to its Cable Beach counterpart with occupancies for August “down against budget” but average daily room rates (ADR) slightly ahead. But, for 2025 to-date, both performance indicators are behind expectations.

He added that the Coral Towers is set to re-open on October 22, and that Atlantis has been “fortunate to have had a really strong casino performance” this year. Planning for renovations to The Cove is continuing, and Mr Weech said there is “a silver lining” from relatively robust bookings heading into 2026.

By Neil Hartnell
Tribune Business Editor